Qualitative risk analysis is a way to rank project risks in low, moderate and high “bins” based on their probability of occurring and their impact on project objectives if they do occur. The main question is how to determine probability and impact scores of very low, low, moderate, high, or very high. Many risk analyses fail to define what these scores mean or fail to be consistent across project objectives. Controversy also exists concerning whether we can use cardinal (numerical) or ordinal (relative) scores, or both. Quantitative schedule risk analysis involves quantifying possible values for activity durations, constructing continuous probability distributions, and simulating the schedule. Topics covered include: the quality of the schedule’s construction, the use of constraints and resources, parallel paths and the “merge bias,” the three promises of schedule risk analysis, and probabilistic and conditional branching.
About the Author
David Hulett consults and trains in project risk management and scheduling through his firm, Hulett & Associates, LLC of Los Angeles. His clients have included companies in many industries: construction, petroleum, pharmaceutical development and plant construction, transportation, large science, and aerospace and defense. He has consulted for several US Government agencies including Defense and Energy department agencies, the General Services Administration and the Government Accountability Office. Dr. Hulett focuses on qualitative and quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis and on project scheduling. The associates of Hulett & Associates, LLC are mature consultants with strong skills and experience and commitment to project management professionalism. Dr. Hulett was project manager, supported by an international committee of experts organized by the Project Management Institute (PMI) Risk Management SIG, for the revision of the Risk Management chapter, of the PMBOK® Guide that was published in 2000 and served on the Core Committee to revise the PMBOK® Guide, 3PrdP Edition. He currently serves as Director of Technology Development of the PMI RiskSIG. He is also the Director for Schedule Risk of the College of Scheduling and serves on the Core Committee for the PMI Practice Standard for Scheduling. He has presented papers on cost and schedule risk analysis to many professional societies including PMI (in North America and at European Project Management conferences as well as at local PMI chapters), INCOSE and AACE. He often presents at the conference of the Integrated Performance Measurement conference of the PMI CPM. He has presented papers on project risk analysis at the Primavera Users Conference, Palisade User Conference, C/S Solutions sInsight User Group and the Risk Management SIG conferences. He has published papers in the Project Management Journal and UPM Network on project risk analysis. Dr. Hulett has held strategic planning positions at TOSCO, an oil company, and at TRW in aerospace and defense. In the Federal government, Dr. Hulett managed offices in the Federal Energy Agency, Department of Energy and the Office of Management and Budget. He was an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. He was an Instructor in the Economics Department at Harvard University. His Ph.D. in Economics is from Stanford and B.A. in the Special Program for Public and International Affairs (Woodrow Wilson School) is from Princeton.
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Innovative Strategies in Risk Management
by David Hulett
